DISCLAIMER: Long-range forecasts are often innaccurate and weather predicitons of this magnitude are based on a broad set of historical data, meteorological data , hydrological data and more. The following views and opinions expressed in this post do not represent the views and opinions of Elements Mountain Company in any form.
Scientists Warn of A California ‘megaflood’
In a new “plausible worst case scenario” research article from ScienceAdvances, the reality of a catastrophic magaflood happening in the next four decades here in California is a direct effect of climate change.
Further predictions are that California’s current flood prevention infrastructure will not be able to handle the higher levels of precipitation accumulation that this next storm will bring and it will surpass the megaflood of 1816-1862 and cause up to $1 billion or more in damages.
According to ScienceAdvances, the author shows the reality of a megaflood occurring are far greater in winters dominated by El Niño than in winters influenced by La Niña. This coming 2022-2023 winter is favored to continue as La Niña through the Northern Hemisphere with a 91% chance in September-November and decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023.
The majority of predictions, based on scientific models, shows the La Niña pattern easing off by Spring of 2023 and the reality of El Niño approaching in the 2023-2024 winter.
What is an El Niño cycle?
According to the Encyclopedic Library from National Geographic, “El Niño is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).” This large-scale chain-reaction atmosphere-ocean pattern can dominate the atmosphere for several years at a time, and it usually begins with higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. A formulation that is currently being observed out in the Pacific.
What does this mean for Truckee?
As cities and towns to our West will be experiencing torrential downpours with most of California’s major highways being washed out or becoming inaccessible, Truckee can expect a pattern of HEAVY and persistent snowfall with accumulations anywhere from 25 to 34 feet of snow.
Be Prepared Click Here To Read Truckee Winter Storms: How To Prepare and Stay Safe →
NEED SNOW REMOVAL?
Elements has been clearing Tahoe Donner for 43 years and counting where we have faced some of Truckee’s largest storms on record. From our diverse fleet to our experienced operators, we can gurantee you will receive the best snow removal service in all of Truckee.
